Embarrassing AI #62: Proximity Bias & The AI Bubble

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The greater the buzz gets around AI, the my feed gets filled with people claiming to have agentized their entire lives, the more talk about all white color jobs getting nuked in 18 months max, the more slop and FOMO being pushed down my throat, the more I think about how to discern the truth in the midst of what feels like a full on hype cycle.

Now, every entrepreneurial corner I go into is filled with people talking about making AI agents or services for SMBs. It’s like the way people talked about apps a decade ago or websites during the dot-com boom. Frankly, it’s very similar to the way I was talking, only a month or two ago.

In the face all this noise, I have mostly questions:

Q: If everyone is making agents and services, why does the world need for me to be adding to this?

A: It’s easy to get the impression that everyone is working on AI, with AI, following the latest developments. Most likely, this is the result of proximity bias, as I surround myself with others interested in both AI and entrepreneurship. That is almost the only thing we talk about. If you need a palette cleanser to better understand how deep AI and agents have really penetrated, go talk to anyone not in tech. Most people have no idea and very little interest.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that the world needs me stuffing my mediocre agents down its throat. Don’t get me wrong, I love the puzzle of trying to make them work, and understanding why they don’t. My research assistant still sucks. I’m sure it will improve, both because I will get better at constructing it and the AI will get better at constructing itself.

Which is why I am starting to think that the opportunity to create a services business around agentic AI for SMBs is very time-constrained. Listening to a recent episode of My First Million, I realized that what AI is leading to is personalized software, which is so easy to create that it no longer requires the help of an expert.

I can easily believe that is 18 months away.

And because I am perpetually scratching my own itch, if it is becoming ever easier to use and deploy AI, what then am I struggling with?

The list is long.

of course

One thing that keeps on coming up time and again is the unsettled twitchiness I experience from being chronically online. It feels like a deep sense of being unmoored, ungrounded. When I feel this most strongly is when I think most about how to change my relationship with my screens so that they return to being tools rather than a means to productize my attention.

Practically speaking, what I mean is how do I get to a point that my computer sits on a side table I turn to when I need to use it as a tool, rather than it sitting in front of my face every time I sit down to work.

Like in the 90s.

Figuring out a way to do that, of being more offline, without going full Luddite may be more useful than creating more agents.

Five months into my job search, I have started to switch gears. AI has been very helpful in helping to think through this, and finding practical things to do. I’m sure I’ll be writing about it soon.

Tools I am using to fake being an expert.

1. Beehiiv (The Platform)

"I tried other platforms, but Beehiiv is the only one that makes growth feel like a game. It’s what runs this newsletter. The Deal: You get a free trial + 20% off (I get a commission to keep the lights on)."

2. Wispr Flow (The Time Saver)

"I hate typing. This tool turns my rambling voice notes into perfect text. It’s the only way I can write this much every day. The Deal: We both get a free month if you try it."

3. Emergent (The Coding Cheat)

"I am not a coder. Emergent is my 'vibe coding' partner that writes the messy parts for me. Essential if you want to build apps without a CS degree."

🧘‍♂ Last Word.

Sometimes I forget how powerful it is to have less information.

Making daily progress,

P.S. Did I do something totally backwards today? Or do you have a better prompt for this? Hit reply and tell me. I’m here to learn just as much as you are. (I read every single email).